Gone are the days when appointing a Foreign Secretary was as
unimportant as hiring a watchman. But with a full time globetrotting Prime
Minister, the Foreign Secretary has to be someone who needs to be at the beck
and call of the PM. The term of the present Foreign Secretary ends on January
28. After the victory of Donald Trump, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj,
Principal Secretary to PM Nripendra Mishra and NSA AjitDoval held an urgent
meeting, where it was decided that Jaishankar should be the first diplomat to
meet with Trump’s team. Jaishankar had dealt with George W. Bush and Obama
during the last 16 years. Jaishankar flew to the US and met some of the
officials in the transition team, as Trump was busy. But like Obama, he
too was treated as ‘lame duck’ FS. According to MEA sources, Anil Wadhwa, a
1979-batch IFS officer, Ambassador to Italy is the seniormost among the serving
diplomats. He was transferred last year while he was serving as Secretary
(East). Another competent diplomat, Sujata Mehta, a 1980-batch IFS officer,
serving as Secretary (West) is waiting in the wings. There are three 1981-batch
IFS officers-NavtejSarna, current Ambassador to the USA, AmarendraKhatua, DG
ICCR, and Secretary, Special Assignments, and Vijay Gokhale Ambassador to China-all
eying the plum post. While the US under Trump will need careful handling,
economic, strategic and security concerns are reason enough for Modi to select
a China expert as Foreign Secretary. It is not certain who among the aspirants
will make it to the top but what seems certain is that Jaishankar is not
getting a second term. But why worry? There is no dearth of think-tanks in the
US eagerly waiting to hire him.
January 24, 2017
Neighbours in shock
It appears that the Finance Ministry had a myopic view about
demonetisation. Nobody in the Ministry asked about or suggested that
demonetisation will have an impact on the economies of the SAARC nations. As
the news is emanating from the SAARC countries, they are baffled. If one thinks
India’s GDP’s size is two trillion only, they are mistaken. The collective
impact of SAARC and India’s GDP is humungous. India has bilateral monetary
treaties with most of the neighbouring countries. Economists who are working on
the demonetisation reports say that being a big nation, India should have
considered the devastating impact of demonetisation before taking such a major
policy decision. Finance Ministry officials have the trade data of SAARC
nations and are well aware of the impact of Indian currency on the neighbouring
countries. Economists opine that it will be difficult to generate the
same confidence level in the Indian currency. Trade among neighbouring
countries will take at least two years to normalise. A senior official of the
Ministry informed that nobody asked them about the impact of demonetisation on
the neighbouring countries, so why blame the ministry.
Bureaucracy stalls investments!
The fact that India continues to rank poorly as an
investment destination in the newly released 10th annual survey of petroleum
sector executives around the world carried out by a prestigious non-profit
global institute is probably as good a time as any for some serious self
introspection. The survey identifies countries with the greatest barriers to
investments in the oil and gas industry and is confined to the oil and gas
executives in the upstream sector. India is placed 30th among 36 countries with
“medium reserve holdings” in terms of policy perception in the global survey.
Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and even Pakistan, come before India. Among Asian
countries included in the survey, India is in the absolute bottom. Only
Bangladesh ranks below us. Among 100 countries overall, India is placed at 80.
Why is the general perception on India so poor? The survey quotes one of the
respondents as saying, “Getting environmental clearance can be a prolonged
process. Even after getting environmental permission, there can be nasty
surprises.” The fiscal terms in India are considered to be a big deterrent but
it is a lower deterrent in Pakistan. Fiscal terms are seen to be as big a
deterrent in China as they are in India. Then again, India’s taxation
burden is seen to be considerably larger than Pakistan but China’s burden is
seen as much higher. Then how does China get a higher score than India? China’s
environmental licensing norms are seen to be much less cumbersome. There are
also more respondents not wanting to invest in India than in China or Pakistan
as a result of uncertainties in interpretation and implementation of policies.
The cost of regulatory compliance too is seen to be much higher in India.
Surprisingly, we are less of a deterrent on labour regulations than China or
Pakistan and we are higher up the ladder on this count than quite a few
countries. India is higher on infrastructure, labour availability and skills
but ranks lower in terms of our quality of geological database. We are
also ahead of others in terms of political stability despite our fractious
politics.
Head hunting for AIIMS
AIIMS has been a political battleground for long. Despite
being the premier hospital of the country, nobody dares to intervene. The
current Director, Dr MC Mishra, is retiring on January 30, 2017, and is
reportedly lobbying for an extension. Meanwhile, the search for a new director
for AIIMS has begun. The names in the forefront are Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s
relative DrRasik Vajpayee, DrRandeepGuleria, DrJagdish Prasad and Dr AB Dey. Dr
Mishra is, moreover, under a cloud these days as he has appointed his close
aide Dr Umesh Kapil as Head of Gastroenterology. Dr Kapil is known as a Human
Nutrition expert. Notably, the required eligibility for the position is MD
(Medicine) and DM in the same field. Sources disclosed that Dr Kapil does not
have these requisites. Sources claim that Dr Kapil actually comes in the list
of ineffective doctors. This is why in 1997, the then head of the department,
Dr Ramesh Tondon, had recommended his removal. What has shocked the AIIMS
fraternity is that in the history of the institute, this is the first time that
a Head of Department was appointed without the Director’s signature on the
order, which is a must as per the AIIMS Charter. Otherwise in general cases,
any letter of appointment or promotion comes from the faculty cell, based on
which the Director issues his order. Sources reveal that the entire sequence of
events engineered by Dr Mishra was to sideline DrAnoop Sarai, as the latter is
reportedly the best qualified and experienced person for the post.
Ironically, on the one hand, there is a shortage of doctors in AIIMS and on the
other, experienced doctors are being dispatched for administrative duties. And
a private practitioner has been made a member in the selection body. It’s to be
seen in the above circumstances, whether Dr Mishra is given an extension or a
new competent and experienced doctor is appointed as Director, AIIMS.
The RSS connection
ratantata visits
nagpur
When the Ratan of Tata group paid a surprise visit to RSS HQ
at Mahal and Reshimbaug, Nagpur and met with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, many
highbrows went up at the number of places media, BJP HQ and industrial houses
closely watching the Tata-Cyrus war. As usual the faceless spokesperson of RSS
Manmohan Vaidya, a known Modi baiter, dismissed it as a “courtesy visit”.
Obviously we know, no Tata company is supplying full pants to RSS. But what was
the agenda? According to business circles in India’s financial capital, Ratan
Tata could be in trouble for some of his international business transactions
gone wrong beyond repair. Cyrus could be privy to some of them by now and will
leave no court unturned to nail Ratan. Now who will insulate the Tata group’s
breakdown from the Mistry? One of Ratan’s many ‘friends’, Shaina NC, a fashion
designer, BJP spokesperson and fund raiser, aspiring South Mumbai candidate and
daughter of Nana Chudasama, former Sheriff of Mumbai came handy. Working her
way up the political ladder she had befriended a powerful politician from
Maharashtra close to the RSS chief. All that Ratan Tata did was press the right
buttons and the next day he was kneeling before the statue of RSS founder at
Reshimbaug. He is understood to have been ‘highly appreciative’ of RSS work in
the areas of education and social work in tribal areas and reportedly promised
to un-cap CSR funds to the RSS. This done, the RSS will apparently put in a
kind word to the concerned quarters to have a sympathetic view of the doyen of
Parsi community.
Race for Prez begins
sushma among contenders
The news
about the election of President and Vice President will be hot till August.
There is no indication from either the BJP or the Congress, but lobbying within
the BJP has started and names of different leaders are emerging. One section
within the BJP is advocating for External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj as
President. There is another lobby which is advocating the candidature of Lok
Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan. However, sources disclosed that BJP President
Amit Shah is not happy with the Speaker. Jharkhand Governor Draupadi Murmur, a
dalitadivasi leader from Odisha, is another strong candidate. The rumour mill
is also propagating the name of film star Amitabh Bachchan for the first
citizen of India. For the post of Vice-President, the names of former Chief
Justice KG Balakrishnan and P Sadashivam are emerging. There is another lobby
which is propagating the name of Venkaiah Naidu for the Vice-President of
India. Insiders within the BJP also feel that if wisdom prevails, then veterans
of the party Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi are the
most suitable candidates, keeping in mind the dedication and commitment
of these leaders. In the given political atmosphere, the battle for these
most prestigious posts will gain momentum after the results of five state
assembly elections. It has to be seen who RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat, Bhaiyaji
Joshi and DattatreyaHosbole recommend to Narendra Modi. One top BJP
leader informed that Modi will choose a personality who will fetch him votes
irrespective of RSS or BJP affiliations.
Lodha in ED net
eyes on his diary
Parasmal Lodha nicknamed ‘Extra Floor Lodha’ the Kolkata businessmanrealtor
has been nabbed by the Enforcement Directorate (ED). After the announcement of
demonetisation on November 8, Lodha travelled more than six times in the same
chartered plane that is meant for the Chief Minister, that too with a famous
industrialist. It is reported that the diary that has been seized from Lodha
has the names of several famous personalities. Lodha was arrested in connection
with the recovery of Rs 25 crore of new currency notes from a Delhi law
firm belonging to advocate Rohit Tandon and Chennai businessman Shekhar Reddy.
It is learnt that his digital diary has the names of the Who’s Who of the
political world. A former Chief Justice of India also figures in the list. The
diary reportedly also has the name of a son of a leader from the ruling party.
A prominent industrialist’s name from the field of communication and oil,
allegedly connected to the 2G scam, is also mentioned. Sources say the diary
has the name of Vijay Singh Dogra who was associated with the Sahara chief.
Dogra’s diary has been used by Rahul and Kejriwal to criticise the Prime
Minister. It has been said that one should not be surprised if some more
prominent names of businessmen and politicians surface from Lodha’s diary.
We are wonderful, but we are too many
The global environmental crisis is no longer a myth but a clear
statement of facts. People are advocating recycling and alternate systems of
power, but this will only help in a minor way. I’m not trying to belittle these
efforts. Windmills, solar panels, etc., are very crucial interventions, but we
are not yet looking for solutions; we are only looking to slow down the
disaster. This means we don’t want the disaster to happen in our lifetime; we want
to gift it to our children. We are trying to lift a tonne of weight with a
little finger; we want to handle a massive problem with small incentives here
and there. If we as humanity are serious about this looming environmental
disaster, we need to come to terms with the fact that all ecological problems
have sprung from irresponsible human reproduction.
Shift to financial assets
The market is likely to witness increased volatility as the
December quarter results pour in. How the initial days of the Trump
Administration pan out coupled with lack of clarity on GST and impact of demonetisation
on the economy and corporate sector may further add to the choppiness of the
market. However, investors should be clear that though the market may witness
bouts of correction, a complete blood bath may be ruled out since domestic
funds have a lot of liquidity and are waiting for any steep correction to
happen. Investors will, therefore, do well to pick stocks in a staggered manner
with each correction they witness lest they are bound to miss the bus again.
The market may go into a prolonged bearish phase only if the government fails
to tackle demonetisation effectively with the implementation of GST getting
delayed beyond a point and Union Budget 2017 not able to meet the expectations
of the resurgent economy and the market and if the earnings revival of the
corporate sector get delayed beyond the next quarter.
Mr. India International
The curtain rose on yet another succession drama, with Mulayam
Singh Yadav again struggling to become the Prime Minister. This time he had the
vocal support from Harkishen Singh Surjeet and Jyoti Basu, with whom he had
several meetings in Banga Bhawan. But ranged against Yadav was the other Yadav,
Laloo, who fancied himself as the real king-maker. Last time it was Mulayam who
had stopped him from becoming Prime Minister, this time he would stop Mulayam.
Laloo had by now lost favour among the Communists because of the fodder scam in
Bihar, but there were others he could lobby with. At one stage Laloo told
Chandrababu Naidu to take the job. But Naidu, aware that years were on his side,
and that any arrangement would be short-lived and tainted, was quick to refuse.
Challenges of old age care
The
sinister shadow of urbanisation, industrialisation, and atomisation of families
has not only deprived the elders of the societal reverence,
traditional family love and care but they are being increasingly neglected and
abused. The problem would exacerbate and reach gargantuan proportion with the
growing size of elderly population, which was 20 million in 1951, 57 million in
1991, 104 million in 2012 and would be over 300 million by the year 2050.
While successive governments have devoted greater part of their focus on
shelter, food and healthcare, especially maternal and child health, the
healthcare of the aged continues in a state of terrible neglect. The deprived,
neglected, abused and abandoned elders whose number continues to swell, suffer
unattended from serious geriatric health and cognitive
disorders. Many senior citizens suffer from the most common form of
dementia-Alzheimer’s disease, a silent tormentor.
Golden Girl
For Sudha Pillai, the former Member Secretary of the Planning
Commission, the inspiration to join the civil services came quite early in
life-in fact, when she was not even ten years of age.Sudha Khanna (Pillai after
marriage) met Sarla Grewal, India’s second woman IAS officer, when she was
barely eight-year-old. Grewal, then Director of Public Instruction (commonly
known as DPI), had come for an annual day function in her Senior Modern School,
Chandigarh. She handed over the prize-The Hungry Strones, a book by
Rabindranath Tagore-to her. With the prize, it seems, Grewal also gave Sudha
Khanna inspiration to be a civil servant. “There I decided to be an IAS,” she
recollects, with the incident still etched in her memory.
Global power shift
The
global power architecture in 2017 may see a significant evolution. Three things
will trigger this evolution: entry of Donald Trump in the White House,
increasing cooperation between Russia and Japan and the growing European
disenchantment with multiculturalism-a post-WWII ism that facilitated the flow
of migrant workers from Muslim North Africa and West Asia into Europe and
America for industrial reconstruction of war-ravaged Europe.Even before being
elected, Trump had indicated that he would reset the USA relationship with the
Russian Federation. A more than a decade of mutual meddling in Ukraine, which
acts as a buffer between the European Union (EU) and Russia, has badly soured
the US-Russia relationship.
Incomplete judgment
Accidents are a common occurrence on the roads of the country. There
can also be no denial that a large number of them-to the extent of almost 80
per cent-are attributed to the driver’s fault. As per the statistics
incorporated by Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH), in its report
titled ‘Road Accidents in India 2015’, in almost 4-5 per cent of such cases the
drivers were found under the influence of drugs/alcohol. MoRTH, on the basis of
statistics available, thought that easy availability of liquor along the
highways is one reason for the drivers to consume alcohol and, therefore, it
has issued numerous advisories to the State governments to not allow sale of
alcohol/liquor within a distance of 220m from middle of State or National
Highways.
It is the economy, no politics, stupid
Whatever be the form of government, winning elections and governance
have largely depended on catchy slogans, especially the economic ones. Whoever
said ‘man does not live by bread alone’ must be repenting how he went so wrong.
From ‘workers of the world unite’ in 1848 to ‘achhe din’ in 2014,
slogans laced with a tinge of economy and prospects of coins jingling in your
pocket have enthused millions to choose a government or throw the unwanted ones
out. A year before the 1992 US Presidential election, 90 per cent Americans
approved George Bush’s job-creating economy. Bill Clinton’s campaign
strategist, James Carville, re-hashed a phrase and coined a new slogan “It’s
the economy, stupid”.
Double speak on Narmada
On January
11, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is slated to perform
BhoomiPujan for the Rs. 750-crore Coca-Cola bottling plant and food processing
unit at the Mohasa-Babai industrial estate in Hoshangabad district. The
proposed plant is just eight km from river Narmada. Billed as the biggest
Coca-Cola bottling unit in India, the proposed plant will require one million
litre water per day, according to the State’s industry minister Rajendra
Shukla. On this day, the Narmada SewaYatra (Narmada pilgrimage) will
likely enter into the district with the message to conserve each drop of the holy
river.
Restore Standard Deduction
The budget presentation date having been preponed by one month
to February 1, umpteen suggestions must be pouring in the Finance Ministry
regarding changes that need to be made in the Income Tax Act.I just wish to
make one to highlight the injustice and discrimination practiced in the cases
of the most honest sector of taxpayers-the salary earners-on whom injustice was
thrust by P Chidambaram, the Finance Minister in the UPA Government, vide his
budget proposals for the year 2005-06 when he increased exemption limits and
adjusted the tax brackets.
Judicial Conundrum The prudent way out
Amidst the intense cry and cacophony over ‘demonetisation’,
grievous governance wounds that bleed the nation are getting sidelined. Most
important among them is the Central Government-Supreme Court impasse on the
appointment of High Court judges. For quite some time the Central government
and Supreme Court Collegium have been locking horns on his issue. The Chief
Justice of India (CJI) has been blaming the government for not doing enough for
appointing judges with the Union Law Minister responding with a counter accusation.
The bone of contention is the Memorandum of Procedure (MoP), which will be the
Rule governing appointment of judges.
Tata-Mistry Feud What Lies Behind?
Rome
wasn’t built in months. Nor was it destroyed in months. The same is the case
with the spat between Ratan Tata, interim Chairman, Tata Group, and Cyrus
Mistry, former Chairman. The story starts, ironically, when Ratan decided to
search for his successor. The year: 2010. The five members of the selection
committee included Ratan’s loyalists-NA Soonawala, RK Krishna Kumar, the
UK-based Lord Bhattacharya, ShrinBharucha, and, of course, Cyrus, whose family
owns 18 per cent in Tata Sons, the group’s holding company. Cut to November 23,
2011. After 18 meetings in search of a professional outsider to carry on the almost
150-year-old Tata legacy, the committee selected Cyrus, who was already an
insider as Tata Sons’ director. He was actually an insider-outsider, possibly
the worst combination for a successor of a $100-billion business empire.
Demonetisation: The jury is still out
When we are confronted with the evidence in any matter, for
example a personal or a political issue, the cognitive process in our brain is
immediately activated. But surprisingly, the neural circuits in the brain
that are normally involved in reasoning or logic do not participate in this
process. In fact, when the brain arrives at a certain conclusion which
makes us emotionally comfortable, we get the rewards in terms of joy or
pleasure and get massively stuck to that conclusion as our own view. This is the
finding of a scientific study reported in the Scientific American
recently.Perhaps this hypothesis explains the obdurate extreme views some of my
senior colleagues hold concerning the dress, gait or stubble of the Prime
Minister. These worthy gentlemen leave no opportunity to berate the decision of
the Prime Minister to replace high denomination currency.
From the Editor
A veteran BJP leader once said
during the run up to 2004 elections that ‘all political parties will be in a
state of flux’. He should be happy that his prediction may come true, only a
little late. Like the traffic stops during a VIP visit, governance comes to a
grinding halt the moment elections are announced. With elections in five States
from February 5 and results on March 11, the next 70 days promise to be
eventful, keeping poll pundits to voters busy. Akhilesh Yadav, the Chief
Minister of the largest State, Uttar Pradesh, is facing two fights, one in the
family and the other in the political arena. If he manages to win both, he is
sure to emerge as a national figure obliterating the Congress vice-president
who is struggling to remain above water. The Congress, which has been out of
power in UP for the last 35 years, seems to be looking for nothing beyond a
runner-up status to the third largest party.
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