POLITICS
regime change
After Manmohan, who?
With so much in his favour, why is the corridor of power suddenly full of speculation that Manmohan Singh may be on the way out?
by RENUMITTAL
IT’S the story of two non-politicians who came together to run the government of the world’s largest democracy. The government came to power in 2004, and the people once again voted for it in 2009. But then the fairytale began cracking up. The government failed to curb and handle the crisis which hit it. The leader of the party which headed the government also failed to take the right action at the right time, in the process compounding an already complicated issue. Yes, this is the story of Manmohan Singh, who became a Prime Minister from a bureaucrat. He had never won an election in his life, and was nominated by Congress party president Sonia Gandhi to the post of Prime Minister. She herself was a novice in politics, but had at least won elections.
She had also acted as a glue to keep a divided Congress together and kept at bay the overwhelming ambitions of powerful men and women in the party.
But the second innings of the UPA has been a saga of corruption, scams, and inept handling of crises by the Prime Minister. By 2011, there has been free talk of an impending mid-term election, or of Manmohan being replaced by another leader. But so far it is nothing but speculation. Congress leaders, however, feel the Prime Minister seems to be destined to go.
They say he is doing some hard bargaining and sending out signals that, in the event he has to step down, it can only be if he is made President of India in 2012 when Pratibha Patil’s term ends. It is not known whether this demand will be acceded. But in case Sonia decides to replace him, the Congress Parliamentary Party will elect a new leader, and that will bring an end to Manmohan’s regime.When chosen, Manmohan had certain advantages. He was the best man to act according to US suggestions and prescriptions. As a votary of the free market economy, he was also the man whom big business houses looked to for protection. The icing on the cake was that he was seen as an honest man with no political agenda of his own except to keep the Prime Ministerial gaddi safe and warm for a member of the Gandhi family. He nurtured no ambitions of contesting and winning elections.
With so much in his favour, why is the corridor of power suddenly full of speculation that Manmohan may be on the way out?
Primarily because there has been a severe cooling off between Sonia and him. Her sudden, undisclosed illness halted this process for some time, despite the fact that the ever so popular Manmohan, the darling of the English and the pink press, has been subjected to negative publicity and questioned on key issues such as the 2G scam.
There has been a severe cooling off between Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh. Her sudden illness halted this process for some time.
The exit of Manmohan’s national security adviser, MK Narayanan, reportedly at the behest of 10, Janpath, followed by the decision to remove the powerful TKA “Kutty” Nair from the post of Principal Secretary and replace him with a supposed 10, Janpath loyalist, Pulok Chatterji, were clear signs that 10, Janpath was displeased with the PMO’s running, the decisions being taken and the power vested in bureaucrats like Nair, known to be close to Manmohan since the 1960s.
A PART from 10, Janpath, senior Congress leaders have been eeply critical of the Prime Minister for quite some time now with an AICC functionary admitting that a negative view of the Prime Minister was gaining currency in the party. It was being felt that his inept handling of the 2G spectrum as well as Anna Hazare’s movement showed that he could not handle the nuances of hardcore politics but was only interested in keeping his chair secure and out of harm’s way.
The deterioration has come fast and quick. A key ally like Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar has called the government and the Prime Minister weak and said that the 2G scandal should have been handled more effectively and competently. He is upset at his name being dragged in and the arrest of Shahid Balwa (a man known to have close links with Pawar). He is also upset at the defeat in Khadakwasala, near his home base.
But the fact that a senior Cabinet Minister like Pawar has chosen to speak out only reinforces the fact that all is far from well in the kingdom of 7, Race Course Road.
Leaders say no detailed discussions on critical and sensitive issues take place in the Cabinet, with much of it being business as usual. Key allies are neither consulted nor taken into confidence nor sought after for advice on important issues. They have been pushed to the sidelines and told to be happy that they are Ministers in the Union government.
THE same situation prevails in the Congress party. No meeting of the Congress Working Committee has been called on any serious or sensitive issue like Telangana, the 2G spectrum scam, the Anna Hazare attack on the Congress party or any other issue.
Senior and grassroots-level leaders have been pushed into oblivion and a handful of trusted faces discuss and debate everything in what has come to be called the core committee. They work on limited inputs and have little touch with the grassroots leaders or workers.
With the cautious and status quoits Sonia not keeping good health, the question is who can be nominated as Prime Minister in place of Manmohan.
The exit of Manmohan Singh’s national security adviser, MK Narayanan (above, left) followed by the moving of Nair (above, right) was a powerful signal of the rift and drift.
While the most obvious choice is Rahul Gandhi, the impression that comes across is that he is not ready to take over the Prime Ministerial responsibilities.
He has declined to be a Minister in Manmohan’s government and is focusing on Uttar Pradesh and the Youth Congress. Sonia wants to instal him as the Prime Minister but since politics comes with no guarantees, the issue being debated at 10, Janpath is whether she can wait till 2014 to instal him as by then it may be too late and the Congress may not be within striking distance of forming the government.
Should he be pushed into taking over his responsibilities with one MP describing it as his inheritance and legacy? The other contenders are from the core committee, which was set up by Sonia herself. Her personal choice, say party men, is AK Antony, another honest leader from Kerala who prides himself on his clean image. But Antony is neither articulate nor administration savvy, he does not believe in taking decisions as they may cast a shadow on his clean profile, and is not considered to be either competent or effective by even his own friends and supporters.
A senior leader said these are certainly not the qualities which can bring a tottering UPA II back from the brink of being an outstanding disaster as he will neither be able to manage the bureaucracy nor his fellow colleagues and Ministers. The Defence Ministry is replete with tales of Antony’s non-performance and indecisive ways, say Ministry watchers.
Ally Pawar has called the PM weak. Sonia’s choice may be Antony but
the man heading the race is party troubleshooter Mukherjee
Home Minister P Chidambaram also sees himself as the next Prime Minister. But his recent problems, both in Madras High Court with relation to his election petition and the Supreme Court where he is close to being named in the 2G spectrum row, along with the inept handling of the Anna Hazare episode, appear to have effectively ruled him out of the Prime Ministerial race.
RECENTLY, the Dalit factor has also come into play with both Meera Kumar and Sushil Kumar Shinde being named as being in the race, but in the Congress scheme of things neither has the right qualification for making it.
Amid this confusion and lack of direction, the UPA’s main troubleshooter and man for all seasons, Pranab Mukherjee, is today heading the race for the Prime Ministership. Sources say that his earlier trust deficit with Sonia has been bridged, his exceptional powers of handling critical issues and clear-cut view of problems has earmarked him as the man who can be considered to lead the government and handle the myriad problems which have come to plague the UPA. So much so that it was Sonia who, from her hospital bed in New York, directed the party and the government to nominate Mukherjee to handle the Hazare agitation when it was getting out of hand.
The Prime Minister has been trying to target Mukherjee through the 2G note prepared by the Cabinet Secretary in consultation with Nair and show him up as an involved party. But the tough stand taken by Mukherjee and his self-righteous defence of his own
position soon put him in the clear.
For an ailing Sonia, decision-making has become even more difficult as she is happiest not rocking the boat or creating any new problems for herself. It is now clear that Manmohan will not go easily. He wants to complete his term or at the very least bargain for the Presidentship of India.
The winter session of Parliament will be crucial for resolving the internal politics of the Congress party with the power lines being more sharply drawn with each passing day. Particularly apparent is the discomfort of the Lok Sabha MPs who have to face elections
and answer the tough questions being lobbed by their voters. They want Sonia to act, and to act fast in resolving key areas of disturbances in both the Central and State governments where they think the party is pushing itself on to the back foot. g
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