NEIGHBOURS
india-bangladesh ties
Lost in transit
Mamata Banerjee’s objection to the Teesta pact blocked the crucial reopening of travel points between the two countries
by DIPTENDRA RAYCHAUDHURI
PRIME Minister Manmohan Singh’s recent trip to Dhaka will be remembered for what it failed to achieve. This failure is about transit points: almost all of which remain closed even four decades after the birth of Bangladesh, supposedly our “friendly” neighbour.A couple of days before the visit, the atmosphere seemed ripe for a revolutionary step in the right direction. But then came the spanner in the works from the mercurial Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal, over the Teesta agreement. In retaliation, Bangladesh slowed the pace of negotiations on the opening of transit points.
It’s not that Bangladesh would benefit less than India. Opening up of the transit points can reshape the economies of all those involved in free traffic – India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and, at a later point of time, Myanmar. It would be the beginning of open roads to all of Southeast Asia.
Such steps are not taken every day, or even pondered. Further, in the context of allegations of widespread corruption against his government, it is uncertain how long Manmohan will remain at the helm. In Bangladesh, it is uncertain if Sheikh Hasina will return to power.
Bangladesh needs India to go past its present rate of growth (about 6%). India needs Bangladesh to secure it and show the world how cooperative it can be with a friendly neighbour. These considerations are very important for both countries. India has no respite from its troublesome neighbour, Pakistan. Manmohan made great efforts to integrate the economies of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and in return got a heinous terror attack on Mumbai. India also needs more markets in its vicinity to expand its economy.
Nepal and Bhutan are small and too poor to serve the purpose. Sri Lanka, being an island, offers limited prospects. So Bangladesh, with a population of 142.3 million and a GDP (PPP) of $258.608 billion (the respective figures for Pakistan are 177.1 million and $464.897 billion) is the obvious choice. Its growth rate is higher than Pakistan’s. And, while it can serve as a good market, it can also play a role in foiling terror outfits’ designs to use its soil for launching ISI-trained personnel into India. It has, in fact, played such a role in the past few years. It has also handed over militants from northeast India cooling their heels in that country.
In return, India had to offer scope for Bangladesh to grow even more rapidly. For that, Manmohan had a plan that can change the face of eastern and northeastern India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and even Myanmar. It was about subregional integration of the economies of all these countries through opening up of several transit points. It would make transportation through any country of the region as simple as going through a single country. It would mean going from Kolkata to any of the northeastern States through Bangladesh, reducing the distance to about one-third. Nepal or Bhutan convoys could go straight to Chittagong port. Bangladeshi commodities could travel to the nearest Indian city with ease. This would contribute to poverty alleviation, economic development, and improvement in transport and communication of the whole region.
Opening up of the transit points can reshape the economies of all those involved in free traffic — India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and, at a later point of time, Myanmar.
The terms and conditions for transit will have to include a lot of finer points like tariff and fees for use of the infrastructure and other facilities, and a clearcut policy for the movement of goods across the border, and so on. But, once everything is in place, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and northeastern India will benefit the most. The rich from Bangladesh may invest in Nepal, while India’s private investors would be encouraged to invest in the northeast of the country. And infrastructure in all these countries and in parts of India would get a boost, as increased commercial activities would attract investment. Even the States would have more money to fund these. Tourism prospects would also grow, particularly in Bangladesh. Millions of Indian Bengalis, whose forefathers lived in the then East Bengal, dream of visiting their ancestral homes.
The Teesta tangle
A World Bank loan of $1.3 billion to build an irrigation system in the Teesta basin will not be forthcoming until India finalises the Teesta Agreement with Bangladesh. The loan will help to complete the Teesta Barrage Project which began three-and-a-half decades ago. Once complete, the project will irrigate more than nine lakh hectares in West Bengal. Currently, less than a lakh hectares are irrigated. The CM’s opposition to the Agreement was that if half of the water to be released from the barrage at Gojaldoba is to be given to Bangladesh, six West Bengal districts will be badly affected by drought. But Central government sources argue that there will be no reduction in the water West Bengal gets from the barrage point while the storage capacity will be augmented. Further, as the Teesta flows beyond Gojaldoba, many streams join it, adding a lot of water. By the time the Teesta reaches the Dalia barrage in Bangladesh, the volume of water has increased significantly. Thus, it is not the Teesta barrage from which all the water for Bangaldesh will be released. But the CM objected to the mention of the Teesta barrage as the point of release.
It is said that the CM could not formally agree to release more than 25 percent water from the barrage point because that was the stand of the previous Left Front government. If she were to agree to a higher figure, the Left would get a weapon of attack. There is a risk that she might have to agree to do that during the dry season until the project is completed, because no reliable study has been conducted to ascertain the exact volume of water in the Teesta.
The question is, why did she object at the last moment? It is true that any objection to the World Bank aid raised by Bangladesh, in this case a lower riparian state, will stop it. Thus, for West Bengal, a little risk can be translated into a big gain if the World Bank project is concluded.
These transit points were open at one time but that era had ended by 1965, when India and Pakistan fought a bitter war. Soon after, there was a revolt in East Pakistan against its western counterpart, and a series of historic events changed the geography of the subcontinent for a second time. Bangladesh was born under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Some years later, he was assassinated and Bangladesh’s fortunes swung between military rulers and democracy. But the transit points remained closed.
Now, when Manmohan realised the utility of opening them, Sheikh Hasina – Mujibur’s daughter – was quick to reciprocate. But no major step could be taken because the atmosphere was vitiated by Banerjee’s insistence on changing the contours of the draft Teesta Agreement and her subsequent decision not to accompany the Prime Minister to Dhaka. The Sheikh Hasina regime is more open to reopening the transit points than its political opponents, particularly those close to the Jamaat-e-Islami.
The transit agreement would have to consider cross-border security aspects. It would not do to let rogue elements take advantage of it. Clandestine use of the inland and river routes for smuggling of arms and ammunitions is a real possibility. But shutting the door out of fear is no alternative to opening it and prospering. g
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